Tuesday Mar 24, 2009
Fewer cite emigration as reason to sell up
The percentage of home owners selling their houses to emigrate has declined dramatically, according to the latest First National Bank (FNB) residential property barometer, released yesterday.
The proportion of properties put up for sale by home owners looking to emigrate peaked at 20 percent in the third quarter of last year, after doubling to 18 percent between the fourth quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of last year.
In the first quarter of this year the percentage declined to 11 percent and emigration slipped to the fourth most important reason for selling.
John Loos, a property strategist at FNB Home Loans, said emigration had declined in importance as people became used to the changed political environment after the ANC's Polokwane conference. It was also "a costly business to go all the way to London to get retrenched".
Downscaling due to financial pressure was unchanged at 26 percent from the two previous quarters and was still the leading driver of selling.
Downscaling with life stage was the second-biggest reason for selling at 19 percent, followed by a change in family structure at 14 percent.
Loos said the barometer pointed to further signs of a mild improvement in demand, but other areas of the survey result painted a rather unconvincing picture.
On a 10-point scale, activity levels in the first quarter rose to 4.8 from 4.6 in the previous quarter and a historic low of 4.1 in the third quarter last year.
Forty-one percent of agents expected demand to strengthen further in the second quarter.
Loos said this implied that positive expectations were not yet embedded in the majority of estate agents.
Interest rates were still the most important driver of expectations, with 33 percent of agents positive about rate cuts.
But 31 percent said banks' lending criteria were still too strict and deposit requirements too onerous.
Nineteen percent of respondents cited the "air of general pessimism" as a problem. This is related to the global downturn and accompanying job losses.
The percentage of properties sold at less than the asking price rose to 86 percent from 81 percent in the previous quarter. The average house was on the market for 17 weeks and four days before being sold, up from 15 weeks and three days.
Loos said the deterioration in these two indicators, at a time when interest rates were declining and demand was picking up, could suggest an increase in seller confidence, causing some to hold out for their asking price for longer.
First-time buyers accounted for 15 percent of purchases, down from 17 percent, and buy-to-let transactions slipped to 11 percent from 12 percent.
Roy Cokayne
Business Report
Posted at 12:17PM Mar 24, 2009 by Editor in Residential |
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